Charles Thraves

About

I am currently an assistant professor at the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Chile. I graduated with a PhD in Operations Research at MIT, and previously I pursued a Master’s in Operations Management at the University of Chile. My undergraduate degree is also in Industrial Engineering at the University of Chile.

Research

My research lies at the intersection of Operations Research, Machine Learning, and data-driven decision-making. I use probabilistic modeling and optimization to study complex systems where data is incomplete, partially observed, or arises from strategic behavior.

A central theme in my work is inference and decision-making under uncertainty. In particular, I study problems where data is incomplete, aggregated, or partially observed, including ecological inference in political science. More broadly, my work connects to discrete choice modeling, predictive analytics, and reinforcement learning in these settings. I also study operational problems in revenue management, service systems, and queueing, where these features naturally appear.

Beyond methodology, I am interested in high-impact applications. I work on health analytics to inform public policy, including models for COVID-19 and RSV, and on motorsports analytics, where I optimize Formula 1 race strategies using dynamic programming, game theory, and reinforcement learning.

Publications


Nirsevimab in High-Risk Infants in a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prevention Strategy

JAMA (2026)

Sauré, D., Torres, J.P., Goic, M., Thraves, C., Pacheco, J., Burgos, J., Zgheib, A., Del Solar, F., Neira, I., O’Ryan, M., Basso, L.


Effectiveness and impact of nirsevimab in Chile during the first season of a national immunisation strategy against RSV (NIRSE-CL): a retrospective observational study

The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2025)

Torres, J. P., Sauré, D., Goic, M., Thraves, C., Pacheco, J., Burgos, J., Trigo, N., Del Solar, F., Neira, I., Díaz, G., O’Ryan, M., and Basso, L


Cost-savings and health impact of strategies for prevention of Respiratory Syncytial Virus with nirsevimab in Chile based on the integrated analysis of 2019–2023 national databases: A retrospective study

Journal of Infection and Public Health (2025)

Sauré, D., O’Ryan, M., Torres, J. P., Trigo, N., Díaz, G., Goic, M., Thraves, C., Pacheco, J., Aguilera, P., Caro, A., and Basso, L.


Affinities and Complementarities of Methods and Information Sets in the Estimation of Prices in Real Estate Markets

Journal of Forecasting (2025)

Bozanic M., Goic M., and Thraves C.


Optimizing Pit Stop Strategies in Formula 1 with Dynamic Programming and Game Theory

European Journal of Operational Research (2024)

Aguad F., and Thraves C.


Analytics Saves Lives During the COVID-19 Crisis in Chile

Informs Journal on Applied Analytics (2023)

Basso, L., Goic, M., Olivares, M., Sauré, D., Thraves, C., Carranza, A., Weintraub, G., Covarrubia, J., Escobedo, C., Jara, N., Moreno ,A., Arancibia, D., Fuenzalida, M., Uribe, J., Zúñiga F., Zúñiga, M., O’Ryan, M., Santelices, E., Torres J., Badal, M., Bozanic, M., Cancino-Espinoza, S., Lara, E., and Neira, I.


On the Optimization of Pit Stop Strategies via Dynamic Programming

Central European Journal of Operations Research (2023)

Carrasco-Heine, F., and Thraves, C.


On the Resource Allocation for Political Campaigns

Production and Operations Management (2021)

Morales, S., and Thraves, C.


On a Variation of Two-part Tariff Pricing of Services: A Data-Driven Approach

Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (2021)

Perakis, G., and Thraves, C.


Consumer Surplus Under Demand Uncertainty

Production and Operations Management (2021)

Cohen, M., Perakis, G., and Thraves, C.


The effect of correlation and false negatives in pool testing strategies for COVID-19

Health Care Management Science (2021)

Basso, J. L., Salinas, V., Saure, D., Thraves, C., and Yankovic, N.


Contingent Preannounced Pricing Policies with Strategic Consumers

Operations Research (2016)

Correa, J. R., Montoya, R., and Thraves, C.

Submitted/Working Papers


An Accurate, Fast, and Scalable Ecological Inference Algorithm for the R×C case

In the first round of revision

Ubilla-Pavez, P., Hermosilla, D., and Thraves, C.


Estimating Checkout Lines with Transaction Data

Working Paper

Carrasco-Heine, F., Guerra, R., Olivares, M., and Thraves, C.


Efficient Computation of Exact p-values for Multinomial Tests

Working Paper

Subiabre, F. and Thraves, C.


Optimizing Pit Stop Strategies in Formula 1: Deep Reinforcement Learning vs. Mathematical Programming

Working Paper

Méndez, F., and Thraves, C.


Own Brand: Who benefits from it?

Working Paper

Thraves, C.

Software


fastei: Fast and scalable ecological inference methods

R package (CRAN), 2025

Hermosilla, D., Ubilla, P., and Thraves, C.

Teaching

Graduate Courses at the University of Chile

  • Operations Management (MBA)
  • Business Analytics (MBA)
  • Applied Data Analytics (MBA)
  • Optimization (Master’s in Business Analytics)
  • Data-Driven Decision Making (Master’s in Business Analytics)
  • Workshop in R and Python (Master’s in Business Analytics)

Undergraduate Courses at the University of Chile

  • Probability
  • Operations Management I
  • Operations Management II
  • Applied Data Analysis Methods

Graduate Courses outside the University of Chile

  • Implementation of Strategy through Operations (MBA, Washington University in St. Louis, 2022)

Awards

  • Public Impact Award, University of Chile, 2025
  • Best Undergraduate Instructor Award, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, 2024
  • Best Instructor, Master in Business Analytics (joint program of the Department of Industrial Engineering and Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Chile), 2024
  • Best Full-Time Instructor Award, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Chile, 2023
  • Franz Edelman Award (INFORMS), 2022
  • POMS Best Student Paper Award 2015
  • CONICYT Master Scholarship, 2010–2011
  • Gold Medal, National Mathematics Olympiad (SOMACHI), 2002